35.8 mbpd Mideast output in 2030

The UAE and other oil producers in the Middle East will add more than 10 million barrels per day to their crude output by 2030 if oil prices decline during that period, according to an official US report.

But their production could rise by only about five million bpd if crude prices remain above $100 a barrel as such relatively high prices will encourage other producers, said the report by the Energy Information Agency (EIA) of the US Department of Energy.

The region will also maintain its position as a major gas producer, with its output expected to surge by nearly seven trillion cubic feet by 2030, the report showed.

From around 25.3 million bpd in 2011, the Middle East’s crude production is projected to swell to nearly 30.5 million bpd in 2020, to 33.4 million bpd in 2025 and a record high of around 35.8 million bpd in 2030. It will further rise to reach 44.4 million bpd in 2040.

The EIA report, assuming low oil prices of around $75 a barrel, showed the Middle East will pump nearly 34 per cent of the world’s total crude output of 105 million bpd although the region controls more than 60 per cent of the global proven oil resources. The level is far higher than in 2011, when the region produced around 29 per cent of the world’s oil.

The report gave no breakdown for the Middle East oil production but analysts said Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, as well as the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran accounted for nearly 80 per cent of the region’s crude output in 2011.

In the reference oil price scenario, involving gradual rise in real prices to $163 by 2040, production by the Middle East will rise to around 30.1 million bpd in 2030 compared with 27.9 million bpd in 2025, around 26.5 million bpd in 2020 and 25.3 million bpd in 2011.

In the high oil price case, output by the Middle East producers will rise slightly to around 25.4 million bpd in 2025 and 27.9 million bpd in 2030.

Turning to gas, the report showed the Middle East is already a major gas producer, with output of around 15.9 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in 2010. It projected production to rise to around 20.1 tcf in 2015 and around 22.7 tcf in 2020. Production will continue to rise to reach 25.2 tcf in 2025 and nearly 27.5 tcf in 2030 before peaking at 31.5 tcf in 2040.

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