'We are some way from positive ground –but it is a start'

Maybe it's the fact that the sun is out in Britain. Maybe it is simply because the crisis has just gone on long enough. But I am worried that I've been a little too bearish in this column of late. Sure, many of the West's banks remain in the most fragile of condition, and I am convinced that we have another leg down in terms of house prices in the US, the UK and also Spain.

But here's an extra chart – from John Kemp, an economist at Reuters – where the trend is undoubtedly encouraging – the monthly ISM Commodity Prices Survey. The evidence here is clear: across the board prices hit their nadir at the turn of the year, with the rate of decline since then reducing each month. Overall, we are some way from positive ground. But it's a start!