Oil falls for 4th day on expectations Russia-Ukraine peace may lift supply

Oil prices were little changed on Monday as investors eyed developments on a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could ease sanctions disrupting global supply flows.

Brent crude futures was up 7 cents at $74.81 a barrel at 0430 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was stable at $70.75 a barrel.

The market continued to keep an eye on progress of peace talks, after U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration officials announced they had begun discussions with Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

"If negotiations lead to a resolution, more Russian barrels would enter global supplies, which could significantly impact oil prices negatively," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

"Despite bearish developments, the near-term for oil looks somewhat supported by positive signs on the demand side," said Sachdeva, pointing to largely stable forecasts for oil demand.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday he believes he could meet "very soon" with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.

His comments come as the United States and Russia are preparing for initial talks in Saudi Arabia in the coming days.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said on Sunday Ukraine and Europe would be part of any "real negotiations" to end Moscow's war, signalling that U.S. talks with Russia this week were a chance to see how serious Putin is about peace.

Sanctions by the U.S. and European Union on Russian oil exports have curbed its shipments and disrupted seaborne oil supply flows.

Meanwhile, the risk of a global trade war is capping prices after Trump last week ordered commerce and economic officials to study reciprocal tariffs against countries that place tariffs on U.S. goods and to return their recommendations by April 1.

U.S. energy firms last week added oil and natural gas rigs for a third week in a row for the first time since December 2023, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.

The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by two to 588 in the week to February 14.

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